This newsletter reflects our opinion on, and strategy in the markets and is no investment advice in any way. Please read our disclaimer
Weekly Issue nr 146 Januari 23 2012
DAILY PORTFOLIO UPDATE: ALL TRADES ARE ANNOUNCED HERE REAL TIME ABOUT THE AUTOR
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Dsi portfolio: from start (febr 09 2009 - 50.000$) +66.66%
S&P500 +51.41% . ( situation Januari 23 2012)
LAST WEEK: No transactions. Our portfolio value increased approxim. 1%.
SP500 up approxim. 1.6%
INVESTMENT STRATEGY: We probably underestimated last weeks uptrend. So far it didn't loose momentum. Nevertheless the situation is getting more and more overbought. We prefer to wait for a ( limited ) pullback before adding new positions. At the positive side we notice the increasing confidence in the U.S. and Germany. On the other hand the Eurozone situation remains uncertain , even with an agreement on the Greec debt. If the situation remains quiet, we expect a renewed upward movement after a technical pullback. So far we prefer to wait and see.
We still believe EUROZONE INVESTORS SHOULD DIVERSIFIE IN OTHER CURRENCIES . (Australian dollar, U.S. dollar, Swiss franc , Norvegian krone).
GOLD: No changes: We believe in a further consolidation/correction. In a long term perspective we keep our believe in it, but for now we prefer to sell or to wait and see. As always flexibility, and readyness to change strategy are of paramount importance for any investor.
OIL: The diminishing tensions in the gulf area lead to somewhat lower prices. We expect moderately higher prices once the global economical situation improves again. So far we keep our OIL position.
Our prudent attitude will be the most rewarding long term strategy; As long as markets are bullish ( as they were the last 2 years) the difference isn't that hughe; but now, since more serious corrections are happening, we will outperform markets more and more.
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DOWNSTREAMINVESTOR PORTFOLIO:
CASH 64658.55$
120 QLD
300 OIL
TOTAL: 83329.95 $
SITUATION ON 01/23/2012
OUR RETURN +66.66% S&P 500 +51.41%
( START FEBRUARY 09 2009)
Important:We always do ( and announce REAL TIME) our transactions at approximately 10.30 A.M. Eastern time ( 16.30 w- europe); brokerfees, taxes etc.. are NOT incalculated in our result; therefore real results will be different. ( transactions list at end of newsletter )
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WHAT WE EXPECT FOR 2012
On one hand we still expect a very turbulent Year, with a weak global economy, and a still uncertain situation in the eurozone; On the other hand we believe in further indications of a renewed growth. ( Germany, U.S.) . One of the main questions will be if the Chinese economy will resume it's normal growth? A resuming global economy would present hughe investment opportunities, both in stock markets and in base metals and oil . Of course this only is a reflection, and has to be confirmed by reality before undertaking any action.
OUR OPINION ON THE MARKETS
General market situation: Even in this overbought situation Wall street didn't loose momentum. Incraesed confidence in Germany and the U.S. pushed the markets. We believe in moderately higher prices the months ahead. On the other hand we expect a technical correction after a climb of several weeks. That could be a good moment to buy extra positions.
SP 500 1 year + slow stochastics Courtesy of http://www.stockcharts.com/
China: CSI 300 showed a nice climb. If next pullback remains moderate, limited positions can be justified. So far we prefer to wait and see and still avoid Chinese values.
Dollar versus Euro: No changes: Weaker Euro / Dollar rates, continuing the medium term downtrend. We believe Eurozone investors should diversifie in more stable currencies. ( Australian dollar, Norvegian Krone , Yen, U.S.dollar).
Base metals: Further improvement of base metal markets, but too early for a trend reversal . So far we don't buy yet, but might change our strategy if the global situation further improves.
Courtesy of http://www.kitco.com/
Oil: The diminishing tensions in the gulf area lead to somewhat lower prices. We expect moderately higher prices once the global economical situation improves again. So far we keep our OIL but don't add new positions.
Brent crude oil in dollar Courtesy of www.oil-price.net
Gold: No changes: We believe in a more or less longer consolidation/correction period. In a long term perspective we keep our confidence in Gold, but for now we don't buy yet.
Courtesy of http://www.kitco.com/
LIST OF TRANSACTIONS
BUY SELL CASH
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11/28/2011 100 dgp 58.10 5810 76622.55
12/12/2011 100 dgp 54.55$=5455 82077.55
12/20/2011 120 QLD 80.95 9714 72363.55
01/03/2012 200 SSO 48.3=9660 62703.55
01/03/2012 300 OIL 26.05 =7815 54888.55
01/12/2012 200sso 48.85= 9770 64658.55
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Transactions 2009 see issue nr 48 NEXT ISSUE JANUARY 30 2012